Nearly 61% believe country is in recession and 65% of independents say economy is worse, according to new Harris pollTell us: what is your personal ‘recession indicator’?With the midterm elections less than three weeks away, key voting groups including independents, rural voters and even some Republicans are increasingly disenchanted with Donald Trump’s economy, according to an exclusive Harris poll for the Guardian.The majority of those surveyed were pessimistic about the economy, with three-quarters of Americans saying they are concerned about a recession while 61% wrongly believe that the US is already experiencing one. By its typical definition, the US is not currently experiencing a recession. Continue reading...

15 Oct 2026 09:00 ✍️ RSS THE GUARDIAN

Latest data showing surprise 0.1% growth is boost to John Healey a fortnight before his first budgetBusiness news – live updatesThe UK economy unexpectedly continued to grow in August despite a fall in consumer spending before John Healey’s first budget as chancellor.Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.1% last month, compared with 0.4% growth in July. That confounded a forecast by City economists of a 0.1% contraction. Continue reading...

15 Oct 2026 06:05 ✍️ RSS THE GUARDIAN

In the final part of our series on the country, Poles tell how wages have soared – along with the cost of livingWill military spending help or hinder Poland’s growth story?Poland’s push for EU energy resilience amid Russian aggressionAbove the rain-soaked streets of Warsaw, the observation deck of the Varso tower overlooks Joseph Stalin’s gift to Poland that has divided opinion for decades.For some, the Soviet-era Palace of Culture and Science is a drunk confectioner’s nightmare; standing as a relic of oppression that should have been demolished. For others, it is an icon on the skyline and a monumental warning from history. Continue reading...

15 Oct 2026 05:56 ✍️ RSS THE GUARDIAN

Finance ministers gathering for the IMF annual meeting know the need for multilateral cooperation to deal with many crises. There is little chance of thatNot much has gone right for the global economy this year, and plenty has gone wrong. Two big regional wars are destabilising prices and supply chains everywhere. Businesses and consumers are feeling the effects of a serious energy shock. Rising inflation has made it a lot more expensive for governments to finance their debts. China and the US are at loggerheads over trade.Yet, so far, the impact has been modest. It is something of a miracle that the finance ministers and central bank governors gathered for this year’s annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Bangkok are not having to deal with a full-blown crisis. This is not like the autumn of 2008, when the meetings took place during the worst of the global banking meltdown.Larry Elliott is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...

15 Oct 2026 05:00 ✍️ RSS THE GUARDIAN

David Redshaw and Fernando Quintana respond to reports of a billionaire exodus from BritainThe idea that the departure of the super-rich is a problem ignores a historical fact (Apparent exodus of super-rich suggests UK is no longer billionaires’ playground, 7 October). Capitalism works better without them. The most successful countries today are states where redistributive taxation has empowered the working masses and provided a better and more stable market for business people.How do today’s complaining uber-rich explain the postwar decades, when the top rate of income tax was commonly 80% or 90%, and yet the period is known as a golden age of capitalism? Then Margaret Thatcher lowered the top rate to 60% and the country tilted into a massive recession. The rich get to a point where they simply become wealth extractors, using their money to buy assets and raising the cost of them for the rest of us – housing being a good example today. Continue reading...

14 Oct 2026 16:19 ✍️ RSS THE GUARDIAN

Final inflation report before voters go to polls comes amid widespread anger over cost of living under TrumpSend us your questions on how the US economy is shaping the midterm electionsRepublicans are entering the midterm elections with the highest rate of inflation since the spring, according to a government report released on Wednesday.US price increases reached an annual rate of 3.7% in September, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, up from 3.4% in August. This final inflation report before the pivotal midterm elections comes amid polls showing widespread dissatisfaction with the Trump administration over the cost of living. Continue reading...

14 Oct 2026 14:29 ✍️ RSS THE GUARDIAN

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news, including the IMF meeting in Thailand, the IEA’s new oil market report, and US inflationFull story: US inflation rose to 3.7% in SeptemberGlobal financial system is failing developing countries, says Ed MilibandUK government borrowing costs are dropping this morning, which will please John Healey and the IMF alike!The yield, or interest rate, on UK 10-year bonds is down 3.5 basis points to 5.4%, while thirty-year bond yields are 3bps lower at 5.89%.Chancellor John Healey is expected to pay for all new giveaways in this month’s Budget — including a cost-of-living package — with higher taxes or spending cuts rather than more borrowing.People briefed on UK Budget preparations told the FT that the October 28 fiscal package would be “scorecard positive” in 2029-30, the final year of the parliament, meaning that all extra discretionary spending was fully funded.China’s exports, imports, and trade surplus all comfortably beat expectations in September as the trade boom continued. Key trade ties look set to remain stable through year-end, which should keep this year’s key growth engine humming. Continue reading...

14 Oct 2026 14:20 ✍️ RSS THE GUARDIAN