Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development says UK economy will grow by just 0.7% this yearThe conflict in the Middle East will damage the UK’s economy more than any other industrialised nation, according to analysis by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which warned over rising inflation.In the first major assessment by a leading international thinktank of the economic impact from the attack on Iran, the OECD said the UK economy would grow by just 0.7% this year, compared with its last forecast, made in December, of 1.2% for 2026. Continue reading...

26 Mar 2026 10:00 ✍️ RSS THE GUARDIAN

BRC survey finds public even more pessimistic about finances as higher energy prices fuel inflation fearsConsumer confidence in the UK has “collapsed” since the start of the Iran war, according to new research from the British Retail Consortium.The sharp rise in energy prices caused by the effective closure of the strait of Hormuz and attacks on infrastructure in the region has led to fears of higher inflation and weaker growth across oil-importing countries. Continue reading...

26 Mar 2026 06:00 ✍️ RSS THE GUARDIAN

Surcharge, spurred by oil price spikes due to the Iran war, is set to take effect on 26 April and run until January 2027The US Postal Service (USPS) plans to introduce its first-ever fuel surcharge on packages to offset rising energy costs, according to a statement.The surcharge, set at 8%, is expected to take effect on 26 April and remain in place until 17 January 2027, under the current plan. Continue reading...

25 Mar 2026 22:04 ✍️ RSS THE GUARDIAN

We have two choices: be paralysed by fear or just continue with what we are doing. I know what I chooseIn the past, my response to any given large-scale world crisis has generally been to do nothing, which, as well as aligning with my personality, has the advantage of being exactly what the experts recommend.During periods of intense market volatility, we are advised not to look at our investments, let alone touch them. If we are rushed at by a bear, we are supposed to stand stock still (unless it’s one of those bears you have to bang pots and pans at, but let’s leave them aside). The result of this is an avoidant philosophy hingeing on the motto “it’ll probably be fine”, that, this week, as Tehran mocked the US for pretending peace talks were under way, was accompanied by a cold, rival notion: what if this time it’s different?Emma Brockes is a Guardian columnistDo you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here. Continue reading...

25 Mar 2026 18:15 ✍️ RSS THE GUARDIAN

UK inflation stays at 3% in February as petrol prices fall and food inflation eases, before Iran war drives up global energy costsAs inflation and interest rate expectations have shifted dramatically since the start of the Iran war, fixed mortgage rates have gone up. Financial markets are now pricing in several interest rate hikes from the Bank of England, rather than cuts.The average two-year fix has risen from 4.83% at the start of March to 5.56% today – the highest since September 2024, according to Moneyfacts. Mortgage rates have inverted, where the five-year is now priced lower than the two-year fix.The turmoil in fixed mortgage rate pricing has worsened, as ongoing hikes have made the two- and five-year fixed rates invert, where five-year is slightly cheaper on average. Swap rates have been inverted for a few days now, so it was only a matter of time for the market to catch up. There is hope this will be a temporary blip until the markets settle down, but it depends how long volatility prolongs. This is unusual, however, its all down to how the markets foresee interest rate setting, many expect higher rates over the shorter-term.This abnormality happened after the fall out from the mini-budget, and it took around three years for the inversion to end. In a traditional market, the average two-year fixed deal would be lower than the five-year, but the unrest in the Middle East is causing concerns over path of interest rate setting, with inflation expected to spike in the months ahead.If deals come back within the coming days, they will likely be at inflated rates to catch up with the current state of play. After all, a volatile mortgage market tends to be a more expensive one.Seeking advice will be essential right now, but even brokers are rushed off their feet trying to keep on top of the mortgage mayhem.We know there will be an impact on our economy from the events in the Middle East. We are making assessments as to what those impacts could be, so that we are prepared and resilient should any of the waves being created in that region begin lapping at our shores.My department has begun outreach to a whole variety of businesses deep into the roots of the economy. Everything will be assessed – supply chains and products that are central to a thriving and successful economy and society. Continue reading...

25 Mar 2026 15:14 ✍️ RSS THE GUARDIAN

The US is recklessly spreading economic havoc among global friends and foes while suffering little harm itselfTo shield ordinary Indians from the war in Iran, the government in Delhi redirected supplies of liquefied gas to Indian families, for which it is the main cooking fuel, limiting supplies to the plastics industry. The Nepalese government rationed gas and the Philippines trimmed the government workweek to four days. Bangladesh closed universities and rationed fuel.They have been hardest hit by Iran’s closure of the strait of Hormuz. Economies in Asia import over a third of the energy they consume, on average. Korea imports four-fifths; Japan nine-tenths; Thailand 55%. Most of this comes from the Gulf. About 80% of oil and oil products transiting through the strait in 2025 was destined for Asia, according to the International Energy Agency. But traffic through its waters has collapsed by 90%. Continue reading...

25 Mar 2026 11:00 ✍️ RSS THE GUARDIAN

Report by Verdant says rooting out waste, fraud and tax avoidance would save money that could help improve public servicesA “Doge of the left,” could save up to £30bn a year for taxpayers by rooting out waste, fraud and tax avoidance, according to the first report from a new green thinktank.Launched amid growing interest in the future manifesto of Zack Polanksi’s Green party, the Verdant thinktank will be co-chaired by James Meadway, a former adviser to Labour shadow chancellor John McDonnell, and civil society campaigner Deborah Doane. Continue reading...

25 Mar 2026 09:00 ✍️ RSS THE GUARDIAN